Welcome to Rankster 👊
The newsletter that separates TikTok Shop winners from wishful thinkers
Reading Time: 5 min
Readability: Grade 2 (my youngest is now in Grade 2... I miss being the smart one...)
DEEP DIVE
The Black Friday Winners & Losers
Not every brand was a winner
I analyzed a few of our TikTok Shop brands during Black Friday 2025…..
Same platform. Same traffic surge. Completely different results.
I wanted to focus on these because I want to give a clear picture….. even though BFCM was incredible on TikTok Shop, not all brands won….. these brands are 100% managed by us…. so we know exactly what was done:
The Black Friday Scoreboard
Let me start with the raw numbers:
The Winners:
Product A: +154% growth, 2.76x ROAS, $112 AOV
Product B: +48% growth, 5.79x ROAS, $26 AOV
The Underperformers:
Product C: +18% growth (wasn't aggressive enough)
Product D: +7,571% growth from their launch base (fragile)
Product E: -19% decline (lost money all weekend)
Now let's break down what the winners did right.
Product A: The Premium Play
$177K in GMV during Black Friday. +154% growth.
This brand is what TikTok Shop success looks like.
What they got right:
1. Channel Balance
Product Card: 44% of GMV
Video: 31% of GMV
LIVE Shopping: 26% of GMV
Shop Tab: 24% of GMV
No single channel above 45%. When one dips, three others compensate.
2. Portfolio Diversification
Hero product: Only 23% of total GMV
10+ products all growing triple digits
Top product grew +95%, but product #7 grew +1,954%
3. Seller Engagement
43 seller LIVE streams during Black Friday
Not just relying on creators
Controlled their own narrative
The Result: 2.76x ROAS at $112 AOV while scaling ad spend to $40K.
This is sustainable, scalable growth.
Product B: The Efficiency Machine
$88K in GMV during Black Friday. +48% growth.
This one's my favorite because they didn't win on premium pricing.
They won on efficiency.
What they got right:
1. Exceptional ROAS
5.79x ROAS = best in the entire study
$5.79 back for every $1 spent on ads
Proves you can win with $26 AOV if you're efficient
2. Deep Portfolio
51 products generating revenue
Different styles, materials, colours
2-pack to 6-pack options
Hero product = 24.4% of GMV. Healthy concentration.
3. Massive Seller Presence
55 seller LIVE streams during Black Friday
Showed up consistently
Didn't outsource their brand to creators
The Result: Profitable growth with room to scale aggressively.
What About The Others?
Product C made money but underperformed (+18% vs market growth of 30-40%).
They weren't aggressive enough with seller content and let their LIVE strategy collapse.
Product D saw explosive growth (+7,571%) but they just launched… they didn’t have everything setup
84% of revenue from one product. That's not a business, that's a time bomb.
Product E declined 19% during Black Friday and lost money (0.92x ROAS).
Inventory issues, Hero product collapsed…….no backup plan.
The Lessons
After analyzing the brands, here's what separates winners from losers:
1. Channel Balance > Channel Dominance
Winners had 25-45% per channel.
Losers had 72-88% from video alone.
Don't put all your traffic in one basket.
2. Hero Product Should Be <30% of Revenue
Winners: 23-24% hero concentration
Losers: 62-84% hero concentration
When your hero dies, your business shouldn't die with it.
3. Seller Content = Control
Winners: 43-55 seller LIVE streams during BF
Underperformers: 0-20 streams or collapsing strategy
Creators can leave. Your brand can't.
4. Product Depth = Business Insurance
Winners: 10-51 products generating revenue
Losers: 3-10 products with extreme concentration
More products = more chances to win.
5. Unit Economics Trump Everything
You need EITHER:
High AOV ($112) + Good ROAS (2.76x) ✅
OR Low AOV ($26) + Exceptional ROAS (5.79x) ✅
You CANNOT have:
Low AOV ($17) + Low ROAS (0.92x) ❌
The math just doesn't work.
The Final Scoreboard
Brand | Growth | ROAS | Hero % | Products | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Product A | +154% | 2.76x | 23% | 10+ | Winner |
Product B | +48% | 5.79x | 24% | 51 | Winner |
Product C | +18% | 2.09x | 23% | 10+ | Poor |
Product D | +7,571% | 0.81x | 84% | 3 | Fragile |
Product E | -19% | 0.92x | 62% | 10 | Failed |
The takeaway?
Black Friday 2025 wasn't about luck. It was about fundamentals.
Balanced channels. Diversified portfolio. Seller engagement. Profitable unit economics.
The brands that executed these? They crushed it.
The brands that didn't? They either failed or they're sitting on a time bomb.
All of these fundamentals are learnable and executable.
You don't need to be lucky. You need to be strategic.
Thanks for reading.
- Paul 👊
PS…. If you are serious about TikTok Shop in 2026….. let’s chat.
TikTok Shop wants us to be part of their new seller incentive program…. only 40 agencies worldwide are granted access, it’s a no brainer, tons of unfair perks….. interested?
I need to ask a favour...