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DEEP DIVE

Every November, sellers panic and start slashing prices like they're in a race to the bottom.

40% off. 50% off. BOGO madness.

Everyone's terrified: What if I don't discount enough and nobody buys?

Here's the truth nobody tells you:

And on TikTok Shop? The game is completely different than Amazon.

Let me show you why…..

TikTok Shop just hit $19 billion in quarterly GMV—now neck-and-neck with eBay's $20.1B.

This happened in two years.

The platform is projecting $6 billion in sales during BFCM alone.

Remember when everyone said it was a fad? Yeah.

Here's where it gets wild...

Data from Charm.io completely flips conventional wisdom: During BFCM, when top brands increased ad spend on TikTok Shop, their ROAS didn't tank—it improved.

Brands spending an average of $2.5 million in November-December saw ROAS from 2× to 17×.

How?

TikTok's GMV Max algorithm dynamically allocates your budget to videos and creators actually converting in real-time.

On Amazon: You pick keywords → bid → hope it converts
On TikTok: Algorithm finds your best content → pushes it to ready buyers → auto-optimizes

Brands crushing BFCM spent months before building creator relationships and testing content.

When November hit, they just scaled what was already working.

If you haven't set up a GMV Max campaign, TikTok will automatically create one for you.

The platform might start spending your ad budget without asking.

Check your TikTok Shop Ads Manager today:

The algorithm moves fast. What works Monday dies Wednesday.

But this forced testing gives you incredibly valuable data in weeks instead of months.

Every category gets a spotlight day during BFCM. TikTok pushes extra traffic, features your products more, and adds platform-funded discounts.

These category days often outperform Black Friday itself.

I've seen 2-3× more revenue on category day than actual Black Friday.

Your move:

These 24 hours can define your Q4.

Customers aren't asking "What's cheapest?"

They're asking:

The discount just gives them permission to say yes faster.

Apple, Nike, Dyson—none are cheapest. All crush BFCM.

Why? They sell meaning before margin.

✅ Build creator relationships NOW
✅ Check your GMV Max campaigns and set budget caps
✅ Know your category day and plan around it
✅ Prepare content 48 hours early
✅ Monitor daily but don't panic over price fluctuations
✅ Focus on urgency + scarcity, not just percentage off

The brands scaling profitably aren't cutting deepest. They built infrastructure in advance, trust the algorithm, and make customers feel they're getting something special—not just cheap.

TikTok Shop is processing $6 billion over the next three weeks.

Unlike Amazon where you're fighting for scraps, TikTok is young enough that you can actually win with solid products and decent creator relationships.

Higher ad spend doesn't kill ROAS on TikTok. It compounds it.

But only if you've done the prep work.

That's it for this week

But I need to ask a favour...

Thanks for reading.

- Paul 👊

PS: If you're heading into BFCM unprepared, that's what we do at Rankster. Our agency clients are locked and loaded with creator pipelines, GMV Max campaigns, and category day strategies. Reply to this email if you want to talk through your situation.

PPS….. Share this email and get our 10K TikTok Shop Affiliate Database